Document Type : Original Article
Author
Ph.D.Student in Economics, Faculty of Economics, Management and Accounting, Yazd University
Abstract
Introduction: Considering that Iran is one of the ten countries with the most pollution, research in this field is necessary. The goal of countries is high economic growth along with the non-emission of pollution. Environmental destruction and climate change are problems of all countries. Some people believe that economic growth leads to the destruction of the environment, and some others do not accept this theory. Sustainable development means that today's generation must meet its own needs without compromising the next generation. Today, countries are trying to achieve sustainable development by minimizing environmental destruction in addition to economic growth. To achieve this goal, international treaties have been concluded between the countries of the world. Many environmental protection organizations were established. One of the long debates among economists is energy consumption. On the one hand, due to economic growth and production of goods, energy consumption is needed, and on the other hand, the pollution caused by the consumption of this energy fuels environmental and non-climate pollution in countries. Because Iran is a country that sells oil and natural gas, it is a country that has a relative advantage in the field of fossil energy. Considering that Iran has a relative advantage in energy consumption, research in this field becomes necessary. Energy consumption can lead to more pollution.
Materials and methods: For the first time, this research investigates the factors affecting energy consumption and pollution emission in Iran using the Markov switching method, fully adjusted ordinary least squares and dynamic ordinary least squares and Johansen's method, for the period of 1994-2021. examines In most of the studies conducted on the relationship between energy consumption and major macroeconomic variables, the influence of factors affecting energy consumption, especially factors affecting energy consumption and pollution emission in Iran, has not been paid attention to. For the first time, this research examines the experimental test of the environmental Kuznets curve with three dynamic time series methods, including fully adjusted ordinary least squares and dynamic ordinary least squares, with three optimal intervals and Johansen's method.
Results: According to the results of this research, with all three dynamic time series methods, the Kuznets curve was confirmed for Iran, and this country is located in the downward part of the Kuznets curve, which means that economic growth initially leads to pollution, but later it causes pollution. Pollution is reduced. Energy consumption has had a positive and significant effect on carbon dioxide emissions. According to the research results, gross domestic product, energy consumption, foreign direct investment have a positive and significant effect on carbon dioxide emissions. Trade has a negative and significant effect on carbon dioxide emissions. The LR test showed that the model is nonlinear and the Markov switching method was used to estimate the model. The results obtained using Markov switching MS-ARMA(3,1,0) method show a positive and significant relationship between trade, GDP and energy consumption with a break on energy consumption. Due to the composition effect of Iran in energy-intensive industries, it has found a relative advantage and trade has a positive and significant effect on consumption.
Keywords: FMOLS، DOLS، Kuznets Curve, Johansen
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