Environment and Interdisciplinary Development

Analysis of the Relationship between Urbanization, Tourism, and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Iran's Provinces

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Omidali Adeli 1
Maasoumeh Vali 2

1 Department of Economics, Faculty of Economic Sciences and Administration, University of Qom, Qom, Iran

2 Department of Accounting, Faculty of Management, Economics and Accounting, Islamic Azad University, Karaj Branch, Karaj, Iran

10.22034/envj.2025.478250.1413
Abstract
Introduction: Urbanization and tourism are two pivotal drivers of contemporary economic and social development, yet they exert considerable impacts on the environment. In countries such as Iran, which have experienced rapid expansion in these sectors, the resulting effects—particularly regarding climate change and greenhouse gas emissions, notably carbon dioxide (CO₂)—are increasingly apparent. The diverse degrees of urbanization and tourism development across Iran’s provinces, combined with their varied environmental characteristics, provide an effective framework for analyzing these interactions. This study investigates the effects of urbanization and tourism on CO₂ emissions in Iranian provinces, utilizing reliable national and international data sources, including the Statistical Center of Iran and the World Bank. 
Materials and Methods: The environmental consequences of oil and gas consumption—especially from urban transport, tourism-related activities, and industrial development—substantially contribute to air pollution. This study analyzes provincial data from Iran for the period 2018–2021, employing a panel error correction model (ECM) to examine long-term equilibrium relationships among the variables. The primary objective is to assess how urbanization, tourism, and industrial activity influence CO₂ emissions and to evaluate regional disparities in emissions. The dataset includes CO₂ emissions, urbanization rates, tourism intensity, and fuel consumption for each province, sourced from authoritative institutions such as the Statistical Center of Iran and the Ministry of Energy.
Results: The Pedroni cointegration test confirms the existence of long-run relationships among the studied variables, demonstrating the persistent effects of urbanization and tourism on CO₂ emissions. The results indicate that changes in urbanization and tourism activity have lasting impacts on CO₂ emissions. The error correction model reveals significant long-term associations among CO₂ emissions, industrialization, urbanization, and gasoline consumption. Specifically, increases in industrialization (SANAT), urbanization (URBAN), and gasoline consumption (BENZIN) are statistically significant predictors of higher CO₂ emissions (NFG_CO₂) over the long term. These findings are consistent with economic theories such as the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC). pollution levels rise during early economic and industrial development but decline with further advancement and the adoption of sustainable practices. The study shows that Iranian provinces with higher levels of urbanization and more developed tourism sectors tend to emit more CO₂, highlighting the environmental costs of such development.
Discussion: The findings underscore the necessity for Iran to reform its urban and tourism policies by adopting green technologies and promoting sustainable tourism practices. Given the significant impact of urbanization and tourism on CO₂ emissions, it is essential to develop strategies that mitigate these effects while supporting economic growth. Policy interventions should focus on enhancing energy efficiency, reducing reliance on fossil fuels, and increasing the use of renewable energy sources. Comprehensive planning that incorporates environmental concerns is crucial for sustainable development, especially in light of Iran’s environmental challenges, such as rising temperatures and air pollution. Embracing green technologies and sustainable planning can play a pivotal role in reducing CO₂ emissions and fostering sustainable development, aligning with both global environmental objectives and Iran’s economic growth. Based on panel data analysis from 2018 to 2021, the study confirms that increased urbanization and tourism have had significant and lasting impacts on CO₂ emissions. These findings highlight the urgent need to revise urban and tourism policies in accordance with sustainable development goals. As part of the proposed policy framework, transitioning to green technologies—such as solar energy in central and desert regions and wind energy in western provinces—offers practical solutions for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. In the tourism sector, implementing eco-friendly accommodations, improving waste management in high-traffic destinations, and educating tourists on natural resource preservation are among the sustainable measures recommended at the provincial level. It is also advisable to launch pilot projects in provinces with high CO₂ emissions to empirically assess the effectiveness of green initiatives. To further enhance policymaking, establishing specific quantitative targets—such as reducing CO₂ emissions by 20% and increasing the share of renewable energy to 30% in the urban and tourism sectors—will be essential. 

Keywords

Tourism
CO2 Emissions
Panel Error Correction Model
Urbanization

Subjects

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Environment and Interdisciplinary Development
Volume 10, Issue 90
Autumn 2025
Pages 109-128

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