Introduction: Given the constraints of resources and population growth, alongside the need to maximize productivity while preserving water, soil, and the environment for future generations, the importance of focusing on agricultural sector productivity is increasing. This study aims to investigate the relationship between climatic variables and the growth of total factor productivity of rainfed wheat in Isfahan province.
Materials and Methods: Data on precipitation, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, mean temperature, precipitation intensity, annual interest rate, total fertilizer consumption, total pesticide consumption (including herbicides, insecticides, fungicides, etc.), total labor, production cost, and yield were collected from the Central Bank of Iran, the National Meteorological Organization, the Agricultural Jihad Organization, and the Agricultural Jihad Organization of Isfahan province. These data were categorized by district for the period 2002–2024. The total factor productivity (TFP) of rainfed wheat, selected based on the largest cultivated area and highest production levels over the past 10 agricultural years, was estimated using the Solow Residual Method, panel data analysis, and a fixed effects model. Furthermore, the correlation coefficient was calculated to examine the relationship between climatic variables—precipitation intensity, mean temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and cumulative precipitation—and the growth of overall productivity of rainfed wheat. This analysis was conducted according to the climatic zones of Isfahan province: (1) warm and rainfed desert climate, (2) semi-arid climate, (3) cold mountainous climate, and (4) semi-cold and semi-arid climate.
Results: The Cobb-Douglas production function was identified as the most suitable model for rainfed wheat production in Isfahan province, based on significant coefficients and a strong R-squared value. The highest and lowest variations in rainfed wheat productivity growth were observed in Faridan district (cold mountainous climate) with 0.009 units and Khansar district (cold mountainous climate) with -0.067 units, respectively. Correlation analysis showed that mean temperature and precipitation intensity have a significant negative relationship with total factor productivity growth, while minimum temperature has a significant positive relationship with the total factor productivity of rainfed wheat.
Discussion: The results of this study demonstrate a significant relationship between climatic factors and total factor productivity growth of rainfed wheat across different districts of Isfahan province. Although geographical and climatic factors are beyond the direct control of policymakers, understanding their impacts allows for better management of their adverse effects on agricultural productivity growth.