Introduction: Currently, achieving sustainable food security—which is regarded as one of the most fundamental requirements for economic, social, and human development at both national and international levels—is facing numerous threats. Rapid population growth, the excessive and unsustainable exploitation of soil, water, and energy resources, along with the intensification of climate change, are among the most significant factors that have not only disrupted ecological balance but have also posed serious challenges to the path toward achieving sustainable development goals. In this context, environmental degradation caused by human activities—especially the emission of greenhouse gases—has increasingly drawn the attention of researchers and policymakers as a major factor contributing to the decline in both the quality and quantity of agricultural production. These emissions have not only led to global warming and the emergence of phenomena such as droughts, floods, and shifts in precipitation patterns but have also disrupted the stable climatic conditions necessary for food production. Accordingly, the present study aims to examine the impact of environmental degradation, with a particular focus on greenhouse gas emissions, on food security (food production) in D8 member countries.
Materials and Methods: To conduct the empirical analysis, an econometric model was developed with the food production index as the dependent variable, and agricultural land, population growth, greenhouse gas emissions (as an indicator of environmental degradation), and food price inflation as independent variables. In order to estimate the model parameters, the panel data method was employed. First, the stationarity of the variables was tested using the Levin, Lin, and Chu (LLC) unit root test. Due to the non-stationarity of one of the variables, the Kao cointegration test was applied to confirm the existence of a long-term relationship. Based on the results of the F-Limer and Hausman tests, a fixed effects model was selected and estimated using the Generalized Least Squares (GLS) method. The data for the period 1994 to 2023 were obtained from the World Bank.
Results: The findings indicate that food price inflation and agricultural land have a positive and significant effect on food production index. Specifically, a one-unit increase in agricultural land leads to a 0.1186 unit increase in the food production index, while a one-unit rise in food price inflation increases food production index by 0.0194 units. In contrast, population growth and environmental degradation have a negative and significant effect on food production index. A one-unit increase in population growth results in a 14.9712 unit decrease in food production index, and a one-unit increase in greenhouse gas emissions leads to a 0.2817 unit decline in food production index.
Discussion: The results of this study highlight that environmental degradation is a significant threat to food production capacity in D8 countries. The rising levels of greenhouse gas emissions and their consequences—such as climate change, droughts, and global warming—directly undermine food security. Additionally, rapid population growth without proportional development in agricultural infrastructure and natural resources places extra pressure on food systems. On the other hand, rising food prices may serve as an economic incentive that encourages farmers to increase production. Accordingly, smart policymaking in four key areas—agricultural land conservation, environmental protection, population growth management, and strengthening economic incentives—is essential to enhance food production capacity in these countries.