Abstract
Introduction: In recent decades, rapid urbanization, increased energy consumption, and continued reliance on fossil fuels have posed significant challenges to public health and environmental sustainability in developing countries. Green electricity, generated from renewable sources (solar, wind, biomass, and hydropower), plays a dual role in the economy and health as a key element in the energy transition. Accordingly, the objective of this study is to examine the non-linear relationship between green electricity and public health, considering urbanization as a threshold variable in developing countries from 2001 to 2023.
Methods: This study uses panel data from 10 developing countries and employs the Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model. The dependent variable is the composite public health index, which includes life expectancy and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The independent variables consist of the share of green electricity in total electricity generation, GDP per capita, urbanization percentage, health expenditure per capita, and greenhouse gas emissions. In this model, urbanization is considered as a threshold variable to examine how the effects of other variables on health change with the increase in urban development.
Findings: The linear model results showed that GDP per capita, urbanization, and the share of green electricity have a positive and significant impact on public health, while health expenditures and greenhouse gas emissions have a negative impact. In the non-linear PSTR model, the urbanization threshold was found to be 55.6%. In the first regime (low urbanization), the effect of green electricity on health was minimal, but in the second regime (high urbanization), this effect increased significantly. Additionally, the positive effects of GDP and urbanization on health were amplified in the second regime, while the negative effect of health expenditures decreased. These findings suggest that as development increases and infrastructure improves, economic productivity and clean energy play a more prominent role in enhancing health. On the other hand, while greenhouse gas emissions have a negative impact on health in the first regime, in the second regime, the apparent positive effect aligns with the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) theory, suggesting that in advanced stages, the negative effects of pollution are mitigated by clean technologies and environmental policies.
Discussion and Conclusion: In the discussion and conclusion of the paper, the results clearly indicate that green electricity can have a significant and sustainable impact on public health in developing countries only when accompanied by improvements in technical infrastructure, sustainable urban development, and economic growth. In the early stages of development, developing countries face financial and technical constraints, which hinder the full realization of health-oriented benefits of renewable electricity. Specifically, during these initial stages, challenges such as limited financial resources, technological deficiencies, and infrastructure issues result in the positive effects of green electricity on public health remaining at a limited level. However, as urban development reaches a certain threshold, and with advancements in technical infrastructure and increased access to modern, clean technologies, this relationship strengthens and significantly leads to improved air quality, reduced pollution-related diseases, and enhanced health indicators.
Keywords: Green electricity, urbanization, greenhouse gas emissions, developing countries, Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model