Background and Objective: Climate change is a major challenge to global agriculture. Rising temperatures, changing rainfall, intensifying droughts, and extreme events affect the production function and threaten economic and ecological sustainability through reduced input productivity, increased output variability, and diminished income stability. In Iran, this issue is critical due to the arid and semi-arid climate, heavy dependence on water and soil, and traditional farming structure. Despite domestic studies on climate impacts on production and income, few have comprehensively measured ecological-economic resilience at the provincial level with emphasis on ecosystem services and integrated governance. The main objective is to measure the ecological-economic resilience of Iranian agriculture to climate change and explain the roles of ecosystem services and integrated governance in enhancing it. This study constructs a composite index, examines climate shock effects, analyzes the role of natural capital and institutional capacity in moderating vulnerability, and identifies spatial differences among provinces. The innovation is that, unlike conventional approaches, it examines resilience within an ecological-economic framework and incorporates ecosystem services as an explanatory and moderating factor.

Materials and Methods: This applied quantitative-analytical research used data from official sources, including statistical yearbooks of the Ministry of Agriculture Jihad, the Statistical Center of Iran, the Iran Meteorological Organization, the Forests, Range and Watershed Management Organization, the Central Bank, the Agricultural Insurance Fund, and remote sensing data for 31 provinces during 2011-2023. The dependent variable was the ecological-economic resilience index, constructed based on water productivity, production value per hectare, land productivity, yield stability, income stability, the inverse of the coefficient of variation of production, crop diversification, the share of low-water-demand crops, and technical efficiency. Weighting was done using a combined BWM-CRITIC approach. Independent variables included climate shock intensity, ecosystem services, and integrated governance. A two-way fixed effects panel model was first estimated. Spatial autocorrelation was then examined using global Moran's I and LISA, and a spatial Durbin model was estimated. Scenario analysis was conducted based on SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, along with social cost-benefit analysis of adaptation options.

Results and Discussion: The mean resilience index was 0.542, indicating a moderate level, but the range of 0.183 to 0.891 shows significant provincial heterogeneity. Water productivity (weight = 0.160) was the most important component. Climate shocks had a significant negative effect (-0.342), while ecosystem services (0.418) and integrated governance (0.287) had significant positive effects. Positive interaction terms indicated that these factors mitigate the negative impact of climate shocks. Significant positive spatial autocorrelation was confirmed (Moran's I = 0.347). LISA cluster analysis identified 8 provinces in the high-high cluster and 11 provinces in the low-low cluster. The spatial Durbin model revealed negative direct and spillover effects of climate shocks and positive direct and spillover effects of ecosystem services and governance. The high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5) projected a 29.3% decline in resilience. Cost-benefit analysis showed that combined adaptation strategies had the highest economic returns. Robustness tests confirmed the stability of results. It is concluded that resilience results from the interaction of productivity, production stability, natural capital, and institutional capacity. Adaptation policies should be region-specific, combined, and based on proactive governance. Recommendations include improving water productivity, protecting ecosystem services, strengthening institutional coordination, prioritizing low-resilience provinces, developing climate-index insurance, and shifting from crisis management to proactive resilience governance.